Tech Musings :- Curde oil

I have been continuously bearish on crude oil since last one and half year and my view was completely wrong. In last two years crude oil has largely stayed in a range and refused to correct. In my last post on crude written on 10^th Jan 2014 I called for a 30% correction in price of crude oil.  In that post I wrote, “Similarly the second chart is a yearly chart of WTI crude. WTI crude is having a strong support at 87 – 90 levels. Once this level is broken I am expecting WTI to fall upto 70 USD levels in current year.”

Although the sell call was never triggered the view had proven completely wrong as crude made a bottom of 91.26 and have moved up 15% since then. 

If we look at the current chart of crude oil we can see that Brent crude has been consolidating between 100 to 116 USD levels. Any break out above 120 will lift the prices to 150 and beyond

Similarly if we look at the chart of WTI Crude it is consolidating between 90 to 112 levels. Any breakout above 115 will move the prices to 150 and beyond.

If we look at the long term chart of crude oil we can see that it is trading in a channel. The support for this channel lies at 90 USD and the target for the breakout come at 170 – 200 levels. This ensures my view that once crude moves above 120 we will see swift upward movement in prices of crude oil.

Summary
1. Buy crude oil at current levels of 106
2. Keep a stop loss at 90

3. Target for crude oil is above 150