Tech Musing:- Currency Reviews

 

In my previous post on Currency written on June 10^th 2014 and updated on 20^th August 2014, I have called for US Dollar index to move up from 80.25 levels to 85 – 86 levels. Today DXY made a high of 85.485 and reached the first target.

If we look at the given chart we can see that DXY has moved up to a crucial resistance. I think it will break out from here and will move up to 92 – 96 -100 levels in next one year or so.

In the same post I called for Euro to fall from 1.36 levels to below 1.30 levels. Euro recently made a low of 1.2725 and is looking extremely week. I won’t be surprised to see Euro falling to 1.20 levels and below. If DXY manages to break above 86 – 88 levels, I won’t be surprised to see Euro going below 1.15 or even 1 to USD in next two years.

 

GBP has also crashed from 1.67 levels to 1.61. I must admit that GBP is one of the strongest currencies against USD and may not fall much. I think GBP has a good support at 1.50 – 1.56 levels.

In my previous post on AUD written on 6^th July 2013, I have called for a weaker AUD. AUD consolidated almost for a year before breaking down again. If we look at the given chart of AUD we can see that AUD is forming a head and shoulder pattern and it spend an entire year forming the right shoulder pattern. AUD should break below 0.88 -0.86 levels and fall sharply from there. Overall my target for AUD remains intact at 0.75 – 0.78 levels in next two years.

 
 

Similarly CAD has also broken out of 12 year long uptrend and should correct sharply from here. The target for CAD stays at 1.20 and above.

 

CHF is also breaking out of 14 year long uptrend and if it stays above 0.95 levels we may see a long term reversal in CHF

Summary:-

1.       Overall US dollar is looking extremely strong against most of the global currency.

2.       JPY, CAD, AUD, EURO, CHF, SEK should depreciate sharply against USD.

3.       GBP also look mildly bearish against USD