I have divided my yearly recap into three parts, Hits, misses
and work in progress. Let’s start with the missed calls.
GOLD
What I expected:-
On 13th January 2015, I gave a
long call on gold when Gold was trading at 1238 with a stop of 1170 and target
of 1350.
What happened:
Gold gave a false break out and move to 1300 levels before
succumbing to the downside pressure and fell to make low of 1049 USD
What I expect:
I think Gold is poised for long term bull rally which will
surprise everyone. I think the recent lows in Gold won’t be breached and trades
can buy gold with a stop loss of 1000 and target of 1350, 1500, 1800 and above.
Interest Rates
What I expected
On 11th June 2015, I wrote a post expecting
interest rates to move up
What happened:
Interest rates largely remained flat and did not moved up as
expected, I though interest rates did not moved contrary to my call, I will
still consider this call as a miss as interest rates did not quite behave as excepted.
What I expect:
At this time it’s not very clear how will interest rates
behave in future. It all depends on whether US 10 year treasury yields can move
above 3.25% and 4.0% or not. Hence I am closing my call on interest rates.
Now lets look at the hits.
Copper
What I expected
On 14th January 2015, I wrote a post expecting
copper price to move down from 247 levels.
What happened:
Copper saw almost 20% correction and moved down to make a
low of 200
What I expect:
I expect the down trend in copper to continue and it will
see a further leg down to 150 - 160 levels.
Yuan
What I expected
In my post written on 14th January 2015, I wrote
that Yuan will weak after strengthening against USD for 6 years.
What happened:
Yuan has closed the year around 6.50 levels and has weakened
almost 5% from my call.
What I expect:
I expect the down trend in Yuan to continue and it will see
a further leg down
INR
What I expected
In my post written on 14th January 2015 and update
written on 16th June 2015, I wrote that INR will depreciate against USD
What happened:
INR fell from 63.57 levels to 67 levels
What I expect
I expect the down trend in INR to continue it will gradually
depreciate against USD due to inherent strength of the Indian economy and
excellent management by the central government.
DXY, EURO,
CAD & AUD
What I expected
In my post written on 30th January 2015 , I continued
with my short call on Euro, AUD CAD
What happened:
EURO fell from 1.131 to make a low of 1.05 (6%)
CAD fell from 1.2658 to 1.40 (10%)
AUD fell from 0.7773 to 0.70 (10%)
What I expect
I expect the down trend in these currencies will continue and
they will gradually depreciate against USD. Once DXY moves above 100 levels we
can see sharp depreciation of these currencies against USD.
SHCOMO
What I expected
In my post written on 11th January and 15th April 2015 , I continued with
my Long call on Shcomp with a target of 4900
What happened:
Shcomp moved up from 3285 to 5050 levels before equally spectacular
crash after completing my target
What I expect
SHcomp looks weak and will correct going forward.
Nifty
What I expected
I gave a short call on Nifty on 30th April when Nifty was trading
at 8200 levels with a target of 7500.
What happened:
Nifty fell from 8200 and made a low of 7550.
What I expect
Nifty is in a slow downside grind and is mostly doing time
correction. Due to underlying strength of the Indian economy nifty is not
falling freely but moving down slowly. I expect the time correction in nifty will
continue before we see a new bull market in 2017. The downside target for Nifty
stays at 7000 and will be a life time buying opportunity if nifty reaches those
levels.
Now lets look at the calls which are still work in progress.
Global
Equity markets
S&P500, UKX, TWSE, SMI, HSI, DAX, CAC
We have been continuously bearish on S&P500
from last two years.
What happenend
It cracked almost 10% in August but moved back sharply to
recover all the losses.
What we expect now
We expect that there will be sharp and severe pull back
across all global equity markets. I will put a separate mail on each of them.
Emerging
market bonds and emerging market Currency index
In the post written on 13th January 2015 I made a bearish
observation on emerging market bond ETF and emerging market currency index.
What happened
EM bond etf moved sideways while Emerging market currencies
corrected only 5%
What I expect.
Emerging market bonds are making very bearish formation and
Emerging market currencies have almost broken a very crucial support level. I
expect sharp fall in both these index going forward.
