Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Will Dowjones Spoil the Party




I am pasting two charts of Dowjones. From the Quarterly chart we can observe that the uptrend which started in 1990 is being tested currently. We can clearly observe that the trend line of that uptrend is being challenged and candlestick pattern is looking really week for current quarter. 12000 -12600 is very crucial level for Dowjones and if Dowjones stay below these levels for a considerable period of time there can be a big sell off in the US equity markets which will trigger a sell off in Global Equities. Although the faith of investors in Emerging markets had been high and specially so in India since only 20% of GDP is derived form exports in comparison of 40% for China and more than 50% for Korea and Taiwan. But i believe that if there is a global sell off in Equities money will flow form risky assets to safe assets like gold and money will flow away form emerging markets at a lightning speed.
From the Daily chart we can observe that Dow Jones has broken the support line at around 12900 levels and if it fails to recapture the lost territory it may fall up to 12000 levels in days to come.

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