Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Its time for Industrial commodities and Energy commodities to crack.

The major economic center of world are starring at sub par growth for years to come. US, Europe, Japan which together accounts for more than 70% of global GDP will grow below normal rate. I expect China to cool down massively and it will grow at 5 -6% in the next decade. Looking at the chart of China since last three months it was very clear that China is going to break down. 

This will result into lower demand for commodities and Industrial metals which will result into lower prices of commodities. This will also cause slow down in the economy of global commodity exporters like Brazil, Australia, Canada  and Russia. These countries along with US, Europe, Japan and China accounts for 90% of global GDP. 

I think that global industrial metals and Energy commodities are going to correct massively from here. I think its a best time to short commodities. 

Copper chart on MCX

I am pasting the chart of copper traded on MCX. It has broken the long term trend line. and now will correct towards 277 and 250 levels. Similar is the case for other industrial metals and Energy commodities like crude oil.

And as we all know that its advantage India. As India is a large commodity importer it will be given tremendous advantage to India which will be able to buy these commodities at much lower prices to built its lagging infrastructure. I think the next decade will be Indian decade just like the current decade was Chinese.

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