Tech Musings - Review

In my last post on 9^th May   I wrote that gold was expected to break below 1632 levels and it will see sharp corrections. In one week gold fell by more than 100 USD and made a low of 1520. In the given chart we can see how Gold had taken support at exactly the same level it had taken last year. I expect this support to be broken and gold will move lower in days to come

Gold

The second chart is of S&P500, on 7^th May I wrote that S&P500 will fall upto 1250 levels. S&P 500 corrected sharply in last week and fell from 1365 to 1295 levels. I expect S&P to correct even further and 1220 – 1250 would be strong support zone. If the support fails to hold then this year can be extremely bearish for markets. In the given chart we can see trend which started in March 2009 has the trend line support exactly at these levels. If this trend line is breached we will see deeper correction to 1150 and 1075 on S&P.

S&P500

In my post on 4^th may I was expecting Nifty to test 4800. In barely 10 trading session Nifty corrected sharply and yesterday market made a low of 4800. If we see the given chart we can see that currently Nifty is testing the trend which started in 2002. Last year correction Nifty took support exactly at the trend line and moved up sharply. Since this is the most important trend line of the current uptrend, it would be very difficult for Nifty to break below 4800.

But once 4800 is broken we will see sharply lower levels in market. My own understanding is that we may see 4200 and 3600. If readers remember on 7^thJanuary I wrote “When I think about the current economic scenario I think the 2012 candle (for Sensex) can shape up something very similar to what I have presented in the fourth chart. I would like to caution my readers that there can be 4 -5 scenarios which looks probable but according to my understanding this is most probable scenario whereby Sensex have opened around 15.5K, will make a high of 18 -19K, a low of 11- 12K and will close the year at around 13-14K.” The first leg of this move is over and nifty made a high of 18428 and is currently trading at 16100. Looking at current macroeconomic scenario I stay hopeful that my call on nifty will come true.  

Nifty

The last chart I have pasted is of Nymex Crude. Crude is currently trading at a very crucial support level. If Crude falls below 88 – 85 USD we will see 70 USD n charts.



Crude