Japanese
Yen depreciated by almost 20% since my call 26th October 2012. In my post on 26th
October I wrote “I think the current rally will take
yen to atleast 87 levels and may be to 94 levels in next six months. It is a
very high conviction trade as per my analysis.” With Yen making a high of 94.50 in this week
my target for yen is over.
If we look at the second chart we can see that yen has only completed
38.2% retracement of the entire fall. I think Yen has now broken out of the 20
year long bear trend and will depreciate significantly in times to come. Next
target for yen is at 100, 105 and 112 levels. Yen may give a sharp pull back
from here but if it will again be a good shorting opportunity if yen weakens to
84 – 87 levels with a stop of 78 and target of 112 in next two years.
Similarly Nikkei also touched my first
target of 11500 given in my post on 4th may 2012 and 16th November 2012. Just like yen I think Nikkei has also broken out of 20 years of long
down trend and it should may go upto 15000 levels in next three years but
before that there will be sharp pullback which will create great buying
opportunities.
Gold also slipped from 1700 levels and made a low of 1600
USD yesterday. I think gold is poised to
go lower as mentioned in my post on 14th
and 24th December 2012.
Below 1600 the support for gold exists at 1570 and 1520 levels. I think gold will give a pull back to 1520
levels for sure. Whether it will break
below 1520 is anyone’s guess, but if it does break below 1520 on monthly
closing basis gold may be in for some serious correction.
Long term support for gold exists at around 1350 to
1400 USD levels. If Gold breaks below these levels the entire uptrend which
started since 2001 will be broken. I think if gold moves towards 1400 USD it
will be a good long term buying opportunity with a stop loss of 1200 and target
of 2100++ in next few years.
Similarly support for silver exist at around 27 levels and
below 27 silver may correct to 21 – 22 levels.
INR took
support exactly at the level mentioned and reversed from there. In my post on 19th
January 2013 I wrote “Trend line support for INR exists at 52.78 levels.
Therefore possibility of INR falling upto 52.75 cannot be ruled out.”
INR took support exactly at the trend line and made a
low 52.87 and reversed strongly from there. If INR is able to move above 55.50
levels we will see sharp depreciation in INR and it should go to 60 – 64 levels
if not higher.
Although Crude oil has moved above my stoploss of 95
overall I stay bearish on crude oil. If we look at the given chart, Crude oil
is facing resistance exactly at trend line and I think it should weaken from
here. Major support for Crude exists at around 70 USD a barrel 100 should act
as a strong resistance for crude. Risky traders can go short on Crude at
current levels with stop of 105.
PS: I have given a short on crude oil around 92 USD with a
stop of 95 on 29th
September 2012
Summary:-
1.
Expect sharp pull backs in Yen
and Nikkei although long term targets are far from here. Any dip will give good
buying opportunity.
2.
Gold should move towards 1520
levels. Any fall around 1400 will be good buying opportunity with stop loss of
1200 on weekly closing basis.
3.
INR has bounced back and next
target for INR is around 60 – 64 levels, wait for a breakout of 55.50 on weekly
closing basis before going short on INR.
4.
Crude looks weak, Go short at
CMP with stop loss of 105 on weekly closing basis.
Disclaimer:- This blog is for information purpose
only. Any decision based on my blog is solely your responsibility. Kindly
consult a qualified financial adviser before acting on any information
mentioned in my blog
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