Tech Musings

I have been bullish on Nikkei since 4^th may 2012 and reiterated my view on 16^th November 2012. Nikkei has moved up by 73% since my last call on 16^th November. I updated the price target for Nikkei from 12000 to 15000 in my post on 16^th February 2013. Nikkei has even outperformed my expectation and the entire market rally was without any correction. 

If we look at the given chart we can see that the rally in Nikkei looks over extended and upside in Nikkei from here is very limited. I think Nikkei won’t go above 16500 levels in near term without any meaningful correction.

 

We can see the long term chart of Nikkei.  Nikkei is trading in a channel and will face stiff resistance at upper end of the channel around 16500 levels.  Once Nikkei breaks above 16500 – 17500 it may see quick gains from there on.  

Third chart is of Shanghai. Readers may remember my last call on Shanghai which I missed by a whisker.  On 24^th November 2012 I gave a buy call when Shanghai was trading at 2017 with a stop loss of 1980. Although Shanghai never triggered my stop loss, I exited my call due to intraday volatility after which the index moved up by 20%.

If we look at the current chart of Shanghai index it looks very attractive. One can buy at current levels (2305) with a stop loss of (2180) and target above 2650.

 

As early as May 2012 I felt that Gold may correct severely. On 9^th may 2012 I wrote that, “Since open low for this year for gold is at 1554 level, If gold breaks below this level it will witness a steep correction to 1320 levels. I would bet that the probability of this happening is 70% - 75%”  

Gold indeed correct sharply and I gave a very timely call to my readers on 14^th December 2012. Gold has corrected severely and fell from 1695 to 1330 levels.

If we look at current chart of gold we can that the correction in gold may be over stretched. I think from here gold will either retrace the entire fall or it will move sideways to complete time correction. I think the probability of gold falling severely from here is very low.

If we look at the yearly chart of gold we can see that gold has just completed 23.6% retracement at 1340 level. High risk traders can buy gold at 1340 – 1360 with a stop loss of 1290 and target of 1500. 

Similarly silver has also cracked and have come to the major support of 20 USD. I have mentioned this level in my various posts.  Just like gold, silver have also cracked and may not fall below the current levels. 

If we look at long term chart of silver we can see that it had 38.2% retracement and may not fall below 20 USD levels. Therefore High risk traders can buy silver at CMP with stop loss of 19.85 and target of 25.