In my
previous post on US markets written on 16th
November 2013, I wrote, “ In the
given chart we can see that S&P has been trading within a channel and
the upper end of the channel is around 1810 – 1840 levels. I firmly believe
that S&P 500 will peak out at these levels before the end of this year.
From next year there should be a sharp correction in S&P500 and it may fall
to 1500 – 1550 levels. I think the probability of this scenario playing
out is more than 70%.”
As we can
see from the chart S&P500 topped out at 1844 in December 2013 and could not
move above that level in entire month of January. In last week S&P500 saw
some sharp fall and has corrected almost 3.5% to 1790.
I think
S&P will see some serious downside in current year. I think there is a high
probability of S&P falling to 1650 or even 1500 levels but there will be
several support before S&P can go there.
I think, we have a very high probability of seeing a 10% -15%
corrections in global markets.
I will
only change my view if S&P500 gives a weekly closing above 1860 – 1870 levels.
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