I have been constantly bearish on AUD since last two three years . In my first post on AUD written on 19th December 2012, I wrote, “Next chart is AUD chart; we can see that AUD is trading very near its long term support trend line. AUD has multiple resistances at current levels and any break out from current levels of 1.05 will face resistance at 1.10 levels. I don’t expect AUD to break above 1.10 levels.”
AUD turned out exactly as predicated. AUD never
moved above 1.0599 and had fallen o 0.856 as per Fridays closing. In the
current chart we can see AUD is forming a head and shoulder pattern and had
almost broken down. The implications of this breakdown will be severe and it
may fall up to 0.70 levels and below as I have mentioned in many of my previous
posts.
Similarly my bullish call on USD is also working well. USD had moved up from 80 levels to 88.356 levels as per Fridays closing. If we look at the current chart we can see that USD is going to face major resistance at 93 levels. So we expect a further 7% - 8% upside in USD before any serious correction began.
Euro has also moved down from 1.3550 levels to
1.2452 levels as predicted in my post written on June 10th 2014. If we look at the
given chart on Euro we can see that there is some support for Euro at 1.20 – 1.21
levels. Any further downside in Euro will happen only if euro breaks below this
level.
In my post on 20th August 2014 I have mentioned
that, “Yen had
consolidated for almost a year since that massive bear market and recently it
broke out of that consolidation. I expect the next wave of correction to start
in Yen which will target 108 – 115 level and beyond.”
Yen has fallen to 118.63 from 102 levels and my
call was spot on. If we look at the current chart of yen we can see that it had
broken out form a long inverse head and shoulder pattern. The target for this
breakout may push Yen below 130 levels in months to come.
My last call is on INR. If we look at the given
yearly chart of INR we can see that INR has consolidated for the entire year
and it is forming a doji pattern. Now Doji can suggest a reversal pattern or a
continuation of the current trend. What I understand from the given chart is
that next year INR will not have a sideways movement but it will move up
sharply or correct sharply.
The second chart is a weekly chart of INR. In
this chart we can see that INR is trading at the lower end of the channel and
it had been taking support of this channel may 2014 but had never broken the
channel. Similarly the current pattern in weekly chart suggests the formation
of inverse had and shoulder pattern.
If we connect the dots then Weekly chart of INR
suggest that the INR will depreciate sharply against USD in next few months, while
the yearly chart of INR suggest that next year INR will be in a trend compared
to a consolidation it saw in year 2014.
Hence I will bet that INR will see some sharp depreciation
in next year. Traders can go short on INR with stop loss of 60 and a target of
65 and beyond
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