Crude OIl

In my previous post on crude oil, I wrote, “If we look at the given chart of WTI crude, we can see that it has strong support at 60 USD. Most likely we will see a 6% to 10% bounce from the current levels and it may move up to 65$, but I expect that to be short-lived. I think the price will again fall from there to 55$ where it will test the long-term channel support. This can happen before the end of December 2018”

The downward momentum in crude oil was stronger than my expectation and crude oil continue to fall to 42 USD. Since then crude bounced back to 65 USD and has largely remained in a range between 55 to 65 USD.

If we look at the weekly chart of NY Crude we can see that the crude is largely trading in a range of 50 -64 and Brent is largely trading in the range of 52-66 USD.

Unless crude oil break above or below this channel crude will stay in this trading range.  

In my previous post written on 11^th January 2015, I wrote, “Long term average prices of crude oil should stay between 50 to 80 USD.” I will narrow this range down to 50 to 70 dollar and my long term bias is on the downside.