Crude and INR

On 19^th March 2020, I wrote, “If we look at the given chart of INR the weakness in INR will continue. I expect INR to depreciate to 78 and beyond in the current year.”

INR has since then made a high of 77.60 and has been strengthening since then. If we look at the given chart of INR it looks like it will strengthen upto 72 levels if not more in the current move. 

On the same day, I wrote, “If we look at the given chart of crude oil we can see that long term support for crude exists at 20 USD. I think crude will find its feet at these levels. Also, crude oil will now find it difficult to move above 50 USD a barrel and the long term range for crude oil is now between 20 to 50 USD per barrel.”

Crude oil subsequently made a low of 16.78 and 19.7 USD on a closing basis. Since then it has moved up by 100%. I continue with my previous call on crude, Crude will continue to trade between 20 to 50 USD for the next couple of years. It will be extremely difficult for crude to sustain above 70 USD per barrel. The longer-term outlook is bearish and crude can fall below 20 USD after 5 to 8 years.