Tech Musings- INR

From the first chart we can see that INR was trading in very tight range since last two months. The upside was capped at 55.5 while the downside was limited to 54.25. In last two days INR has convincingly broken below the zone.

INR chart as on 9th Jan 2013

In the second chart we can see that INR has almost done 50% retracement of the entire upmove. Trend line support for INR exists at 52.78 levels. Therefore possibility of INR falling upto 52.75 cannot be ruled out.

 

If INR breaks below 52.75 levels the next support for INR is at 50 levels. As we can see from the given chart INR has been depreciating severely since early 1980. The trend line is currently at 50 levels hence if the trend has to continue INR should not fall below 48 - 50 levels which would be the last support for this trend.  Overall I continue with my bearish view on INR. This can be a deep pull back like the one we have witnessed before but ultimately INR should depreciate to 60 + levels in time to come.

 

On the side note I want to mention that now my preferred scenario for sensex calls for a rally upto 23500 to 24000 levels. As readers can see from the chart the channel resistance for the current move is at 24000. If index moves above previous high of 21500, the next 2000 points move should come very fast like a blitzkrieg. That should also qualify for a buying climax. 

Right now I think the probability for index moving above 24000 is almost nil. If market moves to these level in next few months that would be a good exit opportunity.